Fighting has intensified across northern Ethiopia in recent days, raising fears the country could slide back into full-scale civil war nearly four years after a peace agreement ended a devastating two-year conflict, though analysts caution the violence has not yet escalated into a nationwide war.
The Ethiopian People’s Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of Ethiopian rebel and insurgent groups, launched a large-scale offensive against federal government forces on September 23 across the Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions. Fighters aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized control of at least two regional airports, including one in the Tigray capital, Mekelle, according to reporting from Reuters and other outlets. The Ethiopian government said its forces had killed more than 270 rebel fighters in the Amhara region as clashes spread.
Flights have been suspended and internet connectivity disrupted across parts of northern Ethiopia, with the monitoring group NetBlocks reporting a telecommunications blackout affecting Tigray. Ethiopia’s federal government carried out at least 21 airstrikes and launched several drone strikes as part of its response, with strikes on two schools in the town of Alamata reported to have killed at least 14 civilians and injured 22 others, according to figures compiled by independent trackers.
The renewed violence follows the collapse of relations between the federal government and the TPLF, which had signed a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, in November 2022, ending a war that began in November 2020 and is estimated by the African Union to have killed around 600,000 people. The TPLF said this week it had formed an alliance with other armed groups to move against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Analysts have said the conflict carries a significant risk of spreading beyond Ethiopia’s borders, citing the ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan and long-simmering tensions with Eritrea. Edward Bach, a senior Africa analyst at the risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, said the rebel offensive had increased the likelihood of full-scale conflict and could provide the government with a pretext to escalate its drone campaign.
Roughly three-quarters of a million people remained displaced within Tigray from the earlier conflict prior to this latest escalation, according to figures cited by regional news outlets. It remains unclear whether the current fighting will be contained or develop into a broader national conflict, with observers watching closely for how the federal government responds in the coming days.
