Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to travel to Pyongyang as early as next week for his first visit to North Korea in seven years, a trip that underscores how indispensable the Beijing-Pyongyang axis has become at a moment of extraordinary regional tension.
The visit, if confirmed, would be Xi’s second ever to the reclusive state. His last — in June 2019 — came at a pivotal moment in North Korean diplomacy, when Kim Jong-un was still engaged in on-and-off talks with Washington. That diplomatic chapter has long since closed. The world Xi is returning to is considerably more volatile.
North Korea has in the intervening years test-fired intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the American mainland, declared itself an irreversible nuclear state by law, and — most consequentially for the region’s security calculus — forged what analysts describe as an increasingly operational military partnership with Russia. Pyongyang has supplied Moscow with artillery shells and ballistic missiles for use in Ukraine; in return, observers believe Russia has offered technical assistance that has meaningfully accelerated North Korea’s weapons programmes, eroding years of sanctions-driven containment.
For Xi, the timing of a visit now carries its own strategic logic. With Washington consumed by its conflict with Iran and the broader fracturing of the post-Cold War order, Beijing has room to move. Reaffirming its position as North Korea’s most essential partner — economically, politically, and diplomatically — costs China little and signals much. It tells Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo that China retains the central role in whatever ultimately happens on the Korean Peninsula, and that any resolution will require Beijing’s involvement on Beijing’s terms.
For Kim, Xi’s arrival would be a gift of a different kind. It confers legitimacy, breaks the international isolation that sanctions were designed to impose, and demonstrates to his domestic audience that the world’s second largest power stands beside him. Kim’s pledge earlier this year to massively expand North Korea’s nuclear arsenal — framed not as desperation but as confidence — fits neatly alongside such an image.
Discussions are expected to cover bilateral trade, border cooperation, and regional security. The more consequential subtext will be how far China is willing to go in shielding North Korea from further international pressure, and whether Xi intends to use his access to Kim to exert any restraint over Pyongyang’s weapons ambitions — or has simply concluded that such restraint is no longer worth pursuing.
Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo will be watching every frame of footage that emerges from the visit, parsing body language and communiqués for signals about where the relationship is heading. What they are unlikely to see is anything that reassures them.
